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90 games in: The Arizona Diamondbacks’ playoff odds

July 15th, 2017 at 10:58 AM
Aggregated By Sports Media 101

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Another ten games in the book, so time to revisit the standings, the playoff odds of the various projection systems, and what history tells us has happened to previous teams with the Diamondbacks‘ current record.

The last 10 games

Arizona is only 3-7 over the last ten games. However, it’s not the only time this year they’ve had such a streak, having also gone 3-7 from April 28 through May 9. You could argue the earlier run of games was actually worse, because the run differential over them was -12, compared to this current streak’s -7. FIve of the seven defeats have been by a margin of one-run. In those, the Diamondbacks are a combined .217 with runners in scoring position, going 7-for-32. It’s not hard to imagine that a couple more well-timed hits there, could have swung them our way. But I think we’ll all be a great deal happier when those hits start dropping in. Tonight in Atlanta would be fine…

The projection systems

Definitely a step back – but perhaps not as much as you’d think based on the weeping, wailing and lamentations emanating out of some quarters. The decrease was 10% at most and 3.7% at least. What has happened, is our division hopes have all but evaporated, with three of the four systems now putting those at less than 1%. Which makes sense if you look at the top spots in the West/Wild-card chase, after game #80 and now.

  • #1. Dodgers – Dodgers
  • #2. Diamondbacks (2.5 GB) – Diamondbacks (8.5 GB)
  • #3. Rockies (6 GB) – Rockies (10.5 GB)
  • #4. Cubs (12 GB) – Cubs (17 GB)

We’ve lost six games in the standings over the past 10 against the Dodgers, but only one against the Cubs. Which is where we come to our new feature in this section, which we’ll get to, after the usual Fangraphs chart.

Us …

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Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Diamondbacks, Fangraphs, FiveThirtyEight, NumberFire

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